Absolutely scathing piece by Peter Hartcher on Alexander Downer in today's Sydney Morning Herald, here are a couple of highlights -
...Downer can be petty and puerile. He plays a mean-spirited, personal, scratchy game of partisan politics. He can be breathtakingly immature.
He was always ready to be flippant and frivolous. He was something of an Inspector Clouseau of foreign ministers: pompous, slightly ridiculous, self-important, hard to take seriously, though ultimately getting through most of his assignments with some bare seat-of-the-pants competence.
...
Rudd came to win the respect and confidence of the voting public in the years he was facing off against Downer. The foreign minister was unable to derail or discredit Rudd. Instead, he was the perfect foil.
It was while Rudd was prosecuting the attack on the AWB scandal, the Iraq war, the "Pacific solution" and the failure to sign the Kyoto Protocol that he demonstrated his competence and soundness. It was this performance that persuaded the voting public, and then the Labor caucus, that Rudd was leadership material. In this sense, Downer helped create the leader who destroyed the Howard government [emphasis added].
Worth reading in full. Doing some research last year on the Australian/East Timor oil and gas negotiations I was struck by how inept, cavalier and prattish Downer came across in his public statements on what was happening, frequently using the idea that "the East Timorese owe us for their independence" in order to justify taking earnings away from one of the poorest nations in the world (and who happens to be strategically important to Australian interests in the longer term). I can't imagine he'll ever be welcome in Dili - not that it's his sort of destination anyway. Good riddance to him.
Well, I've had another shocking week with just 2 out of 6 correct from last weekend and, look, honestly, it's feeling like a form slump. I've been a bit crook and had a few other things going on lately so I'm just putting it down to having my attention drawn elsewhere. Here's hoping that this blip in what has largely otherwise been a good season of tipping doesn't have too big an impact on the tally at the end of round 22.
To this weekend's two games to finalise Round 14:
Adelaide v Geelong: Geelong welcome back some big names and should have a win here. Interesting article by Jake Niall yesterday about how the weird draw for this season has been of some help to the Cats -
The most celebrated oddity of this weird new schedule is that Geelong does not play its putative challenger Hawthorn until round 17. No less significant is the fact that the Cats don't play the Western Bulldogs, who have supplanted Hawthorn in second spot, until round 16.
Far from being handicapped after their premiership, the Cats have been handed what has turned out to be a very friendly schedule. They will end up playing two clubs in the current bottom four — Port Adelaide and Fremantle — twice each before they play their nearest ladder competitors in rounds 16 and 17.
Sydney v Collingwood: There won't be a shortage of Magpies fans at the Telstra Stadium for a game that should be considered winnable by the Collingwood team. I'm hesitant to pick Sydney due to Goodes not playing (even though they welcome back Everitt) and their recent record against the Magpies, but still, they should get a win here I think. Put a tenner on the Magpies if you're a gambler perhaps.
From the always dedicated baddogwhiskas over on Flickr.
The streets in Enmore are now a touch scarier.
GRAFFITI_ENMORE_0608_20
Let's start with some choice quotes from last week's tips shall we?
...there's an element of basic foolhardiness in tipping the Dockers but it worked last week so I'll be giving it another go.
...I think [the Kangaroos are] unable to mount a convincing case that they can beat the Hawks tomorrow.
...No Johnstone, no Sherman for Brisbane tomorrow night. Get your money on Adelaide while you can.
[Re: Port v Richmond] ...This is the sort of game that Richmond are likely to win but I'm sticking with the home team this time. Tigers would be worth a punt if you're a gambler though.
Having said that, despite my worst week of tips this season with three out of eight I'm still leading one comp and in equal third in another. Weird. It's a split round for the next couple of weeks with six games this weekend and the remaining two the following, so no doubt all the clubs will appreciate a little bit of time off. Let's have a look at what's on:
Hawthorn v West Coast: North Melbourne ably demonstrated some of the Hawk's defensive weaknesses in their win last weekend, but you just can't see the Eagles repeating the trick. And this news about Michael Voss being approached by the Eagles is a bit weird too, noting that his column today in The Age considers the side.
Richmond v Carlton: Very good win by the Tigers last weekend against a pretty useless Port side so they'll have a bit of confidence coming into this game against the Blues. Chris Judd took a bit of a knock in the loss against Essendon and I don't think he'll play. Bookies are picking the Tigers and I think I'll get on board. Not least because Richmond also have the most singable club song as well. "We come from Ti-ger-land.."
Kangaroos v St Kilda: North Melbourne would naturally prefer to hang onto their top eight spot against a Saints team just two points below them in ninth spot. Danger game for the Roos with Dal Santo, Milne and Koschitzke also returning for St Kilda, but their style of play is too negative to be able to beat North Melbourne at the unfamiliar surrounds of Carrara Stadium.
Western Bulldogs v Port Adelaide: Port, recognising that the season's gone (and I believe that the Port Adelaide CEO John James resigned this morning too), has started blooding new players, and they may as well make it an AFL initiation to remember against the hard-tackling Bulldogs. I heard that the Collingwood v Bulldogs game last Sunday evening was a ripper and the Sons of the West shoudn't have any problems here.
Melbourne v Brisbane: Interesting talk in Canberra at the moment about how the Demons are keen to play here a few more times basically because the government subsidies make it more profitable than playing in Melbourne. Of course while they're here it's all about "developing the code" etc etc etc, but they wouldn't want to underestimate this market. Anyway, this match is a bit of a no-brainer, isn't it? Lions by lots.
Fremantle v Essendon: Probably the hardest match of the round to pick. Freo have dropped Jeff Farmer for disciplinary reasons while the Bombers have lost the promising Jason Winderlich to injury for the rest of the season. Essendon will be feeling good about themselves after beating up Carlton last week but their recent record at Subiaco's pretty poor. Another half-hearted Dockers tip from me for this week.
So that's it until a brief preview of the Adelaide v Geelong and Sydney v Collingwood matches next weekend, enjoy your footy.
Here's Henry.. have a new gallery site on the way, looking good..
Looks like a few people were looking for upsets last week as I managed shoot back to the outright top in both comps. I caught parts of the Western Bulldogs v Brisbane game on radio and yeah, I'm glad I didnae watch it on the tv. Then Sunday I caught most of the Collingwood v Carlton game with that wonderful last quarter by Judd and co. stomping the Blues into the top eight.
Interesting times. Let's have a look at round 13:
St Kilda v Fremantle: Well, the season's pretty much written off for both of these sides but they don't look the tanking type. News for the Saints is the dropping of Nick Dal Santo and Stephen Milne for tonight's game with a few youngsters coming in too. No changes to the Freo side that convincingly beat North Melbourne last Saturday arvo. Freo doesn't have that great a record at the Dome, but if they're going to win one tonight is probably one of their better opportunities. Maybe their confidence is improving too. Again, there's an element of basic foolhardiness in tipping the Dockers but it worked last week so I'll be giving it another go.
Hawthorn v Kangaroos: Some thought Franklin was lucky to get off with a reprimand for his bump in the Adelaide game but it didn't look that bad to me. No Chance Bateman for them against the Roos which will be a blow, but North Melbourne have enough injury concerns of their own too. I think they're unable to mount a convincing case that they can beat the Hawks tomorrow.
Port Adelaide v Richmond: Hmm, the "chokers" tag would have to be weighing a least a little on the minds of the folk down at Port Adelaide this week, as ably noted by David a few days ago. This is the sort of game that Richmond are likely to win but I'm sticking with the home team this time. Tigers would be worth a punt if you're a gambler though.
Brisbane v Adelaide: So a couple of weeks ago I wrote -
The next two weeks sees the Lions play the Western Bulldogs and Adelaide which will provide a much better indication of their September chances (assuming there are no significant injury concerns by then).
Brisbane are likely to be without Bradshaw, Roe and Leunberger, though Rischitelli and Copeland return along with debutante Tom Collier. The loss of Bradshaw in particular hurts them. Fact is they got well and truly thumped by the Bulldogs last week, with the key message from the side appearing to be about the "learning experience" gained from the loss (standard sort of stuff really).
This week's match against 5th placed Adelaide will be another hard test, and to be honest I don't think they're up to it. Bookies are against me and it's probably the roughie of the week, but I'll be tipping the Crows to win (while inwardly hoping the Lions prevail).
[Update Friday evening]: No Johnstone, no Sherman for Brisbane tomorrow night. Get your money on Adelaide while you can.
West Coast v Geelong: The Eagles almost beat the Cats earlier in the season but since then the fortunes of the two sides have gone in opposite directions. Barring disaster it'll be another win for Geelong.
Melbourne v Sydney: This one's in Canberra but to be frank I've got better things to do than to see what should be a pretty crap game, especially if you're a Demons supporter. And in a flash of brilliance, the match is being shown live into Canberra on free to air tv which should just do wonders for the attendance figures. Which will then no doubt contribute to even fewer games coming here. Despite the cold it's a good venue to watch the footy at, that I'll happily attest to. Sydney to win this match by miles.
Carlton v Essendon: This should be a good game, one worth watching. Carlton are really starting to come together as a team and Judd continues to demonstrate the ability to nearly single-handedly bend a game to his will like great players can (as per his second half against Collingwood last weekend). The Bombers thumped them earlier in the year but I think they'll have the better of them this time.
Collingwood v Western Bulldogs: Here come the Collywobbles. The Magpies look to be without three key players in Cloke, Davis and Fraser while there are no such problems for the Bulldogs. The "Sons of the West" should have a good game here and win by around seven or eight goals. Easy.
Tipping a number of away teams here which is always a bit of a worry, but it should be right. Enjoy your footy this weekend.
Choco's chokers. I am cleverly diverting attention from Brisbane's capitulation at the hands of a superb Bulldogs last night by pointing you towards a rather good article exploring just why Port Adelaide is like it is. Is it all Mark William's fault?
Seven out of eight last week thanks to a moronic final quarter by Port Adelaide in their game against Carlton last Sunday evening. No match focus this week, too busy what with little boys who won't have their daytime nap and all. So a quick preview:
Essendon v West Coast: The Bombers were competitive with Hawthorn last week and were it not for the freakish Mr Franklin may well have come away with a win (in that alternative universe I mentioned last week, I guess). The final minutes of the Eagles' game against Sydney last Saturday night were some of the tensest I've seen and they'll be kicking themselves that they blew such a big lead during the second half. Essendon should have the edge here, but it's a tough one.
Western Bulldogs v Brisbane: This will be a real test for the Lions as they play a team that's looking like a genuine premiership contender after their win against Hawthorn and then their effort against the Saints last weekend. No Bradshaw in the Brisbane side but they have a few running defenders returning which will help them against the hard-running Bulldogs. I'd love to tip Brisbane for this but hey, I've got tipping comps to win. Should be the Bulldogs tomorrow arvo. Looks like I won't be able to watch the game live with some caselaw research to finalise at ANU instead. Bugger.
Fremantle v North Melbourne: The Dockers showed some promising signs last week, particularly the form of young forwards Palmer and Mayne, though you can see their inexperience in some of their decision making. North, on the other hand, need a win to ensure they're cemented in the top eight. The bookies have this one pretty even, so I'm going with Freo as they're playing at home and if they lose then it gives me something to bitch about for the rest of the weekend. Though there's no shortage of topics in that regard, believe me. Grumble grumble grumble.
Sydney v St Kilda: Commentators are saying that St Kilda's window of premiership opportunity has now closed, and a loss against the Swans this weekend will only emphasise the point. Barry Hall returns for Sydney after that punch and they shouldn't have too many problems beating the Saints at the SCG.
Adelaide v Hawthorn: Another tough game to pick (odds are dead even), but I just don't think that the Crows "have it" this season. AAMI stadium isn't too intimidating a task for visiting teams so I'm tipping the Hawks to win, especially considering they beat them easily in round 4 down at Launceston.
Geelong v Port Adelaide: The Port Power should be pretty grumpy at themselves after such a stupid loss to Carlton last weekend, but considering they're facing the premiers the best they can probably hope for is to turn in a performance that commentators will call "competitive", i.e. they don't get absolutely thumped. The Cats to win at home on Sunday afternoon.
Collingwood v Carlton: Again, I wonder aloud when the collywobbles are going to kick in. Will it be this weekend in a match that the majority of tipsters, experts and random hobos expect them to win? Carlton knocked over Collingwood in round 4 but the magpies will have hardened since then, and if Wakelin can keep Fev held down to a few goals at most then they'll be right. Should be a couple of interesting matchups in the midfield, too.
Richmond v Melbourne: Tigers fans will be pencilling this in as a much anticipated win, and rightly so against the hapless, hapless Dees. Having said that, if there's a team that could lose it then Richmond joins Freo in such a category. Tigers to win though.
That's it for this week then. Interesting to see Voss' comment that
[n]ever before can I remember a top eight so clear-cut at the halfway mark of the season.
I think he has a point. Be sure to check out the ABC's Grandstand AFL site occasionally as well, looks like they've got pods and interviews and all. Enjoy your footy this weekend.
Not sure I have the time for coming up with one of my own, so take a look at RealFooty's half-time report over their way. A simple team by team analysis with predictions as to whether they'll rise, hold or lose their place on the ladder.
